My Process:

I think one of the toughest things to do when sports betting, is simply deciding what it is you want to bet on. What makes something a good bet? And how do you find those bets in the vast open sea of available bets that are out there?

Step 1: Shrink the board

At the time of me writing this, the NBA Playoffs are in full gear, MLB regular season, Stanley Cup Playoffs, the MLS season, and a new golf event each and every weekend. It’s a lot. And its only going to pick up when we dip into the fall. The first thing I do, as to avoid over-betting or getting overwhelmed with the mass amount of sides, totals, and player props to consider, is shrink the board. I have a pretty good idea of what I’m good at and what I’m not. NBA sides, MLB totals, a nibble on some player props in the NBA. That’s generally my bread and butter, so I start there.

Step 2: Be early or be late to the party

The #1 advantage any sports bettor has is betting early, right around the time the lines come out or early, early in the morning. If you have a good read on a game and you know a sport really well, and you know how the general betting market is going to favor the game -and you happen to agree with the way bets are going to be placed, place your bet before the oddsmakers shift the line. For instance, at the time of my writing this I’m on the Timberwolves -6 vs the Warriors in game 1. That was where the line was shortly after opening, I knew I wanted to be on Minnesota. The line right now is T-Wolves -7.5. I was right about the line movement and I’ve got tremendous CLV (closing line value). Does that guarantee a win? Certainly not, but you’d always rather have a better # than a worse one. Ok, now the reverse of this equation. What if you like the Warriors in that same game? It would not have been advantageous to bet when the line opened, because now, rather than getting +6, your getting +7.5. Being early to the party, when you are right, can be a huge advantage, but the advantage in waiting until closer to tip off, is that you have all this market information at your disposal. You see how the game has been bet up or down, you’ve heard all the analysis, you have the most up to date and relevant injury report. I always want to be first or last if I can help it when making a bet. There are exceptions, as there are with everything in betting, but that is a general good practice. I also encourage you, especially if you are a ‘late to the party’ bettor, to look at betting splits. The % of bets that are placed on a side vs the amount of money. That is a good tell for bigger sporting events as to where the “smart” money lies. Action Network, VSiN, and others will provide this information for a monthly fee.

Step 3: Identify the bets

This is where you have to allow yourself to get into a ‘Zone’ (pardon the pun), this is not something that should be done at a redlight or while you are waiting for the gas pump to fill up your tank. Sit in front of your computer, and start to identify games you might have a good feel for, players you think might be hot or cold, or due for some positive or negative regression, this is where betting instincts come into play – there is no one-size fits all way to decide what it is your going to dig into. This is where your years of sports fandom and knowledge guide you like the hands on a Weegee board. But once you’ve dug in and decided what is of interest to you – that’s where you can become more analytical. Look at 3 or 4 betting sites, compare odds and prices, this will give you and indication as to whether you are getting value on your bet. If Donovan Mitchell’s point total prop is set at 27.5 (-110) on Draft Kings and Fan Duel but 28.5 (-110) on Hard Rock, it’s a bad bet to place the wager on Hard Rock. Which is frustrating in the State of Florida since that’s the only sportsbook we have, but you can still look at other American sportsbooks to see if you are getting value or if you are getting fleeced (Unebated.com is a good site to check out this info as well). Maybe you feel really confident that bet is going to hit anyway, that’s where I would cut my unit size in half. You only want to bet full units if you have a true ‘edge’ on the number, relative to where that line is set everywhere else or if you are convinced you are beating the market. I would also say, don’t be ashamed to look at what the experts are saying. There are a lot of tricksters out there in the content space, but there are loads of really sharp people that devote their livelihood to giving out sharp wagers, find those people, and don’t be afraid to tail them. Just do your own research on top of it, that way you are never betting blindly into something. If you don’t have your own system, eventually you are going to be lost, staring at the board with no confidence or plan of action.

Step 4: How much should you bet?

This is perhaps the most important aspect to all of this if you are trying to actually keep your account afloat. A professional bettor would tell you that you should only bet 1-3% of your bankroll (the money you’ve set aside for sports betting and nothing else) on each single wager. 1% can be a really small amount of money if your betting bankroll is small, 1% of 100 dollars is a dollar, I get it, but if you are trying to play consistently, for a long period of time, while actually basking in the glow of long-term ROI, this is how you have to do it. Otherwise, you are just playing the lottery.

Side bar time: That’s the difference between ‘gambling’ and ‘sports betting’, in my humble opinion. Gambling is when you throw money down, hoping to net a big return, with no long term strategy or gameplan. You either win, or you lose. That simple. Sports betting, when done right, is a long-term disciplined practice that you can absolutely make money doing, its just not going to be glamorous. The Hard Rock’s and Fan Duel’s of the world are never going to tweet out: “Johnny in Sarasota took home $250 year over year with a solid, consistent, and steady 4.5% ROI!” – its not sexy. If you want sexy, this probably isn’t for you. Losing money is probably for you. Bet your parlay’s and lie to your friends about how much you win, it’ll be great.

Back to the original point. How much should you bet? 1-3% of you betting bankroll. Your bet size should never actually make you sweat, if it does, you are betting too much. So start with that mental framework. I bet between 0.3 units to 2.0 units per bet, and its all based on A) Confidence of the wager and B) What sort of edge I might have in terms of pricing. Believe me, I wish I was as consistent and true to that formula as it sounds, this is a work in progress for me as well. I generally cap myself between 5-7 units per day, but there are plenty of days where I have just 1 unit down, it all depends on how confident and clearly I’m seeing the board. Remember, sometimes the best bet you can make, is no bet at all.

Step 4: Track your bets

I didn’t start achieving consistent success until I started tracking my bets. This gives you an honest detail of how much money you are actually bringing in (or losing). Tracking also gives you a good glimpse of what you are actually good at and what your not. What teams you have a good read on, and which ones you can’t figure out. Tracking is an absolute cheat code when it comes to sports betting and the more info you gain, the more you will understand your betting fingerprint. Everybody has their own strengths, weaknesses, and strategies – that’s one of the many things I find so fascinating about sports betting. There is no one-right-way to do it, there’s the right way for YOU to do it, and tracking your success and failure is the clearest path to getting there.